A small indication of a possible rebound was seen among retailers when asked to forecast their 2nd quarter 2009 gross revenues.
| > | When looking at a combined response for travel related companies (resorts, wholesalers & liveaboards), the average company posted a -14% loss in their 1st quarter 2009 gross revenues as compared to the same period in 2008. Their outlook is equally depressed, as only 18% of all travel companies indicated they expect increases revenues in the 2nd quarter of 2009. |
| > | Independent Instructors posted a modest drop in certification numbers as well indicating a -6.8% loss in the 1st quarter of 2009. However, they are very optimistic for the 2nd quarter of 2009, as a robust 36.8% indicated they expect increases in certifications for the 2nd quarter of the year versus the same period in 2008. |
Summary:
| > | Internationally, businesses, by region, responded as follows for an projected INCREASE in their 2nd quarter gross revenues: Canada: +27% Carib/S. Amer: +28% USA: +28% Europe/So. Pac & Other Regions: +31% |
| > | Overall, retailers responded as follows for an INCREASE in their 2nd quarter outlook for gross revenues: Eastern US: +25% Central US: +25% Pacific US: +45% Mountain US: +23% As shown, retailers in the US Mountain timezone are still the LEAST optimistic (same as last quarter), while retailers in the Pacific region of the US are the MOST optimistic about their 2nd quarter '09 Gross revenues increasing. |
| Cline Group, Creators of: | |
| > | Scuba Diving Magazine (1990) |
| > | The Cline Diving Industry Studies (1992, 1994, 2004) |
| > | The Scuba Tour (1998-2000) |
| Strategic Branding & Marketing For: | |
| > | The Bahamas Tourism Board (1992-current) |
| > | Bonaire's Tourism Board (1993 - 2000) |
| > | Barbados's Tourism Board (2000) |
| > | The Dutch Caribbean Diving Alliance (DEMA 1998/1999) |
| > | The Scuba Tour (1998-2000) |
| > | Mini-B North America (2003-2004) |
| > | Sand Dollar Resort, Bonaire (1992-current) |
| > | Stuart Cove's Dive The Bahamas (2004-current) |
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Cline's Diving Industry Survey Results
First Quarter 2009 Dive Business Survey
Cline's First Quarter 2009 Dive Industry Survey is in and a total of 319 dive businesses responded to this survey and indicated the following results:
- All dive businesses saw, on average, a -9% decrease in their gross revenues for the 1st quarter 2009 versus the same period in 2008.
- Retailers specifically were down, reporting a -12.1% decrease in their overall gross revenues in the 1st quarter of this year.
- New certifications were also down as retailers posted an average decline of -10.4%. Independent instructors also posted a -6.8% decrease in certifications.
- Dive travel sales were down -10.2% specifically for retailers.
- Dive equipment sales were also off, as retailers posted a -10.6% decline in sales.
- 91.3% of the retailer respondents were from the USA.
- 96.3% of the retailer respondents were the facility owner or manager.
- As pointed out below, there is a glimmer of hope that the retail sector is starting or at least projecting a small rebound in revenues and certifications. See the 'Retailer Outlook Table' below.
- As shown in the last 'DEMA Show Table' approximately half of all the respondents indicated they are planning on either attending or exhibiting at the show this fall.
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* Above overall reported averages are adjusted averages for all business classifications, including those classifications indicated as 'n/a' (a classification in which the responses are too low to calculate accurate category averages but applied to the overall averages and totals).
The following Businesses Responded to this survey:
|
> Dive Retailers residing in the Eastern Time Zone responded with the largest decrease in gross revenues for the 1st quarter of 2009. While dive retailers in the Pacific Time Zone posted a slightly smaller loss as shown:
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> Although there are more retail shops projecting decreases in gross sales, the percentage of shops reporting increased sales for the 2nd quarter 2009 is almost twice as high as last quarter. This may be a first indicator of a small but significant rebound in the retail sector for the dive industry. As shown in the table below, 26% of all retailers responded that they expect their gross revenues to increase in the 2nd quarter of 2009. That figure, although small, is up from just over 14% that was reported last quarter, an almost doubling of dive shops that are optimistic for the 2nd quarter, in terms of sales. Dive certifications, travel and equipment sales all show the same possible rebound indications as well:
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> When asked about the upcoming DEMA show in Orlando this year, respondents indicated the following results when asked if they were planning on attending or exhibiting:
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As shown, overall, there is support for the show in terms of attending and/or exhibiting, especially among the key retailer group.
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See previous reports here:
http://www.clinegroup.net/diving/dive-research-set.html
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